What if ENSO-neutral benign year delivers calm global yields?
A rare stretch of ENSO-neutral conditions yields benign weather across major belts, normalizing harvests and letting world grain prices drift lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A rare stretch of ENSO-neutral conditions yields benign weather across major belts, normalizing harvests and letting world grain prices drift lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.29–+0.37% · other way -1.98% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.02–+0.65% · other way -2.29% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.38–+1.43% · other way +7.25% (n=5) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.61–+12.58% · other way +1.7% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.14–+2.57% · other way -5.45% (n=5) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.37–+0.21% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.24–+1.04% · other way +0.34% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.9–+3.96% · other way -0.82% (n=7) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.17–+0.54% · other way -2.35% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.27–+0.18% · other way +0.75% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -6.5% | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.9% | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 51% | 38 | 0.02 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 46% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |