What if EU carbon squeeze: ETS price breaks €150/t?
Tighter EU ETS caps plus the launch of ETS2 for buildings and transport drive the carbon price above €150/t, raising cost-push inflation and squeezing energy-intensive industry.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Tighter EU ETS caps plus the launch of ETS2 for buildings and transport drive the carbon price above €150/t, raising cost-push inflation and squeezing energy-intensive industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.07–-0.36% · other way -2.56% (n=11) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.95–-0.23% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.72–-0.28% · other way -1.98% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.74–+0.11% · other way -0.76% (n=11) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.29–+21.91% · other way +0.12% (n=11) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.31–+0.32% · other way -1.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.14–+13.12% · other way +1.42% (n=11) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.86–+4.49% · other way -4.76% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.03–+0.16% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.64–+2.91% · other way +7.24% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +10.3% · 5d +3.1% | 76% | 28 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +19.0% · 5d +1.9% | 66% | 29 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.0% | 65% | 35 | 0.25 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 31 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.3% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 32 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.2% | 55% | 28 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 31 | 0.06 | · |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.5% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 17 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.4% | 49% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 46% | 18 | 0.00 | · |