What if the EU carbon price surges toward EUR 300 per tonne?
Fit-for-55 tightening drives the EU ETS allowance price toward EUR300/t as the cap collapses and the MSR drains surplus, forcing rapid repricing of EU heavy-industry credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Fit-for-55 tightening drives the EU ETS allowance price toward EUR300/t as the cap collapses and the MSR drains surplus, forcing rapid repricing of EU heavy-industry credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.34–+1.98% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.01–+1.07% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.78–+0.06% · other way +1.23% (n=10) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.11–+0.74% · other way +6.91% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.28% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.35–-0.02% · other way -1.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.51–+0.63% · other way +20.99% (n=12) |
| 8 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.56–+0.4% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.75–+0.19% · other way -0.26% (n=11) |
| 10 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.47–+1.53% · other way +5.66% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.17–+3.91% · other way -10.95% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.55–+0.17% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.2–+0.18% · other way +13.31% (n=6) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -2.16–+0.36% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.6% | 71% | 34 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 34 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.4% | 65% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +5.5% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |