What if critical minerals bottlenecks slow European electrification and raise transition costs?
Concentrated supply of lithium, copper and rare earths needed for the energy transition creates bottlenecks that raise costs and slow European electrification and grid buildout.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Concentrated supply of lithium, copper and rare earths needed for the energy transition creates bottlenecks that raise costs and slow European electrification and grid buildout. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.