What if EU ETS2 passes carbon costs to households and hauliers, sparking political backlash?
Launch of the EU ETS2 covering buildings and road transport passes carbon costs to households and hauliers, sparking affordability backlash and political risk to the path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Launch of the EU ETS2 covering buildings and road transport passes carbon costs to households and hauliers, sparking affordability backlash and political risk to the path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.52–+0.69% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.63–+2.17% · other way +4.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.15–+0.48% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.41–+13.42% · other way -3.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.92–+6.77% · other way -7.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.3–+0.67% · other way +3.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.03% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 8 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.20 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.9% · 5d +3.2% | 62% | 8 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 17 | 0.13 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 55% | 26 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +5bp | 51% | 29 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.6% | 44% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 37% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |