What if EU rearmament unlocks joint defense bonds?
The EU funds a continent-scale rearmament with jointly issued defense bonds, a fiscal-integration step that lifts defense names, EUR and European duration supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The EU funds a continent-scale rearmament with jointly issued defense bonds, a fiscal-integration step that lifts defense names, EUR and European duration supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · European energy ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.04–+1.82% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.05–+1.4% · other way +4.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.06–+0.8% · other way -1.19% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.92–+4.95% · other way -3.68% (n=7) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.96–+2.3% · other way -1.99% (n=8) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.53–+1.44% · other way +1.26% (n=11) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.64% · other way -0.79% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.52–+0.23% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.67–+0.42% · other way +1.07% (n=10) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.04–+0.09% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 25 | 0.20 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 29 | 0.12 | · |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.5% | 56% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -4.7% | 55% | 23 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 43% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 39% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |