What if European carbon-price surge lifts gas-vs-coal switching and TTF?
A jump in EU ETS carbon prices raises coal's effective cost above gas, increasing gas-fired generation and pulling more LNG into Europe, tightening the balance and supporting TTF.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A jump in EU ETS carbon prices raises coal's effective cost above gas, increasing gas-fired generation and pulling more LNG into Europe, tightening the balance and supporting TTF. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.17–+0.14% |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.78–+0.53% |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.06% |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.46–+0.67% |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.6–+6.21% |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.63–+0.16% |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.9–+3.58% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.1% | 70% | 29 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 28 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.7% | 56% | 29 | 0.11 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.5% | 53% | 28 | 0.05 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 43% | 23 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +4bp | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | · |