What if a prolonged low-wind, low-sun period strains Europe's renewables-heavy grid in winter?
A prolonged low-wind, low-sun 'Dunkelflaute' during a cold snap strains a renewables-heavy European grid, spiking power prices and forcing costly gas and import reliance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A prolonged low-wind, low-sun 'Dunkelflaute' during a cold snap strains a renewables-heavy European grid, spiking power prices and forcing costly gas and import reliance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -12.34–+5.13% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.51–+0.52% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.76–+15.28% · other way -3.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.77–+0.92% · other way +3.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.25–+8.46% · other way -7.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -4.8% | 70% | 15 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 14 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +-0.0% | 61% | 13 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 15 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 26 | 0.12 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +8bp | 54% | 24 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 54% | 16 | 0.06 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +6bp | 48% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +1.9% | 38% | 7 | 0.00 | · |