What if European Dunkelflaute: wind drought spikes power prices?
A prolonged winter wind-and-solar lull (Dunkelflaute) forces Europe back onto gas and imports, spiking power prices and exposing renewable-grid reliability gaps.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A prolonged winter wind-and-solar lull (Dunkelflaute) forces Europe back onto gas and imports, spiking power prices and exposing renewable-grid reliability gaps. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · European energy ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.13–+1.85% · other way +7.41% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.9–+0.7% · other way +2.48% (n=11) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.22–+0.47% · other way +2.98% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.66–+6.85% · other way -2.03% (n=9) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.46–+1.32% · other way +5.44% (n=9) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+0.72% · other way +14.41% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.37% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+1.0% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.92–+0.24% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.01–+4.39% · other way -9.37% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.11% · other way +9.6% (n=9) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.64% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.52–+0.66% · other way +0.97% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +2.2% | 67% | 27 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 26 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.7% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 25 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 30 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.7% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 37 | 0.01 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 42% | 26 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |