What if a repeat of the 2021 Ahr-valley flooding hits central Europe at greater severity?
A repeat of the 2021 Bergne/Ahr-valley flooding across central Europe at greater severity inflicts €40bn+ insured losses, straining reinsurers and EU flood protection gaps EIOPA monitors.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A repeat of the 2021 Bergne/Ahr-valley flooding across central Europe at greater severity inflicts €40bn+ insured losses, straining reinsurers and EU flood protection gaps EIOPA monitors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.89–+0.35% · other way +16.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.74–+0.7% · other way -1.2% (n=9) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.36–+1.94% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +-0.0–+1.05% · other way +1.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.09% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.07–+4.08% · other way -13.33% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.69–+0.73% · other way +6.51% (n=9) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–+0.05% · other way +10.85% (n=9) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.83–+0.03% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.21% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.71–+0.08% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.05% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–+0.33% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 34 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +3.3% | 65% | 17 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +5.5% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -7.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 20 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |