What if European gas spike idles ammonia plants and lifts nitrogen?
A renewed European gas-price surge forces widespread ammonia-plant curtailment, cutting nitrogen output and pushing urea/UAN to crisis prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A renewed European gas-price surge forces widespread ammonia-plant curtailment, cutting nitrogen output and pushing urea/UAN to crisis prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.06% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.67–+2.84% · other way +3.96% (n=12) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.35–+1.41% · other way +4.77% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.24–+6.33% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.45% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.15% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 66% | 21 | 0.29 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -7.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 7 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.2% | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 15 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.2% | 45% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d +14.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +6bp ↺ fades | 50% | 21 | 0.00 | · |