What if European gas-to-power switching surges as TTF stays cheap?
Sustained low TTF makes gas-fired generation cheaper than coal across the EU power stack, surging gas-to-power burn and absorbing surplus LNG while undercutting European thermal-coal demand.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sustained low TTF makes gas-fired generation cheaper than coal across the EU power stack, surging gas-to-power burn and absorbing surplus LNG while undercutting European thermal-coal demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · European energy ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.