What if European gas-to-power switching surges as TTF stays cheap?
Sustained low TTF makes gas-fired generation cheaper than coal across the EU power stack, surging gas-to-power burn and absorbing surplus LNG while undercutting European thermal-coal demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sustained low TTF makes gas-fired generation cheaper than coal across the EU power stack, surging gas-to-power burn and absorbing surplus LNG while undercutting European thermal-coal demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · European energy ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–+0.16% · other way -3.53% (n=10) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–+0.27% · other way -3.01% (n=10) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.13% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.73–+4.18% · other way +5.06% (n=9) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.28–+0.21% · other way -3.73% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.77–+7.0% · other way +0.55% (n=10) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.08–+0.59% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.14–+6.59% · other way +0.64% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.7–+1.43% · other way -0.67% (n=10) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.03–+15.02% · other way +0.86% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.87–+5.47% · other way +2.19% (n=10) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.97–+0.33% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.3–+0.8% · other way -1.82% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +2.3% | 73% | 21 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +6.1% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -4.3% | 66% | 27 | 0.26 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.0% | 63% | 24 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +13.7% · 5d +1.4% | 60% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 14 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 25 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 32 | 0.09 | · |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -6.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 13 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 46% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |