What if an energy squeeze triggers rolling blackouts across parts of Europe?
A supply-demand imbalance during an energy squeeze triggers rolling blackouts or near-misses in parts of Europe, hitting output, confidence and forcing emergency interventions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A supply-demand imbalance during an energy squeeze triggers rolling blackouts or near-misses in parts of Europe, hitting output, confidence and forcing emergency interventions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.56–+6.82% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.99–+1.2% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–+0.23% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.92–+0.78% · other way +3.35% (n=10) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.25–+2.1% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.63–+3.02% · other way -7.85% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–-0.14% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–-0.06% · other way +0.58% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.77% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.23% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.11% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -9.78–+11.1% · other way +21.74% (n=10) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–-0.03% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 69% | 28 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 34 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +2.6% | 65% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 64% | 28 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 17 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.3% · 5d +1.3% | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.8% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 27 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |