What if European industry curtails as TTF spike makes ammonia uneconomic?
A renewed TTF spike pushes European ammonia, methanol and fertilizer plants below breakeven, triggering demand-destroying curtailments that cap gas upside but deepen the industrial recession.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed TTF spike pushes European ammonia, methanol and fertilizer plants below breakeven, triggering demand-destroying curtailments that cap gas upside but deepen the industrial recession. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–-0.08% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.35–+6.15% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.21% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.07% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.29–+2.18% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.52–+1.37% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.82–+0.69% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.45% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.87–+0.84% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -9.72–+19.99% · other way +23.14% (n=10) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.41% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.0–+3.48% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist +0.19–+0.71% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.6% · 5d +8.3% | 86% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.46 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 66% | 21 | 0.29 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -7.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 7 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.2% | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 9 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 11 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 53% | 15 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d +14.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |