What if a cold winter triggers an LNG bidding war between Europe and Asia that spikes TTF?
A cold northern-hemisphere winter pits Europe against Asia in an LNG bidding war, spiking TTF gas as cargoes are diverted and refill targets become costly to meet.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold northern-hemisphere winter pits Europe against Asia in an LNG bidding war, spiking TTF gas as cargoes are diverted and refill targets become costly to meet. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · China growth ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.4–+2.21% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.23–+0.26% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.73% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.78–+1.31% · other way +7.83% (n=12) |
| 5 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.16–+0.47% · other way +2.71% (n=10) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.27–+9.59% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.58–+4.02% · other way -8.6% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.62–+0.17% · other way +3.68% (n=12) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.65–+4.61% · other way -3.37% (n=10) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.08–+0.14% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.5% | 68% | 22 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 24 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.30 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 11 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 23 | 0.16 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 22 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 33 | 0.06 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 36% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 49% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +5bp | 45% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 45% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +2.1% | 36% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |