What if a cold winter triggers an LNG bidding war between Europe and Asia that spikes TTF?
A cold northern-hemisphere winter pits Europe against Asia in an LNG bidding war, spiking TTF gas as cargoes are diverted and refill targets become costly to meet.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold northern-hemisphere winter pits Europe against Asia in an LNG bidding war, spiking TTF gas as cargoes are diverted and refill targets become costly to meet. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · China growth ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.