What if a cold, windless winter sends European power above 1,000 euros?
A cold, windless Dunkelflaute spiking EU power above EUR1,000/MWh pulls TTF and German baseload up and EUR/USD down on the import-bill shock. Rhymes with the Jan-2025/Dec-2022 Dunkelflaute episodes and the 2021 TTF intraday record, all wind-drought driven. France/Nordics normally export into Germany; when wind dies the whole pool clears off scarce gas peakers. Forward angle: more wind on the grid raises Dunkelflaute tail-risk, but fuller storage shortens the spike versus 2022. The NG/european_energy map is sound.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold, windless winter spikes European wholesale electricity above 1,000 euros per megawatt-hour for weeks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.