What if a cold, windless winter sends European power above 1,000 euros?
A cold, windless Dunkelflaute spiking EU power above EUR1,000/MWh pulls TTF and German baseload up and EUR/USD down on the import-bill shock. Rhymes with the Jan-2025/Dec-2022 Dunkelflaute episodes and the 2021 TTF intraday record, all wind-drought driven. France/Nordics normally export into Germany; when wind dies the whole pool clears off scarce gas peakers. Forward angle: more wind on the grid raises Dunkelflaute tail-risk, but fuller storage shortens the spike versus 2022. The NG/european_energy map is sound.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold, windless winter spikes European wholesale electricity above 1,000 euros per megawatt-hour for weeks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -10.2–+6.51% · other way +6.89% (n=6) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.94–+0.24% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on NG: -3.8% is off-channel — analogues are Iran, Russian transit, Venezuela, not a cold-windless-winter demand spike; sustained 1,000-euro power is the gas-pull shock those windows miss.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 14 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.0% | 83% | 5 | 0.34 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -10.8% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 11 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 9 | 0.07 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 11 | 0.04 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 44% | 11 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 45% | 14 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +6bp | 48% | 14 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Cold windless winter spiking EU power above 1000eur happens; weather-dependent, single-season window moderate. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.