What if European storage falls below 30% mid-winter, TTF gaps to €80?
A cold, wind-still winter draws EU gas storage below 30% by January and revives 2022-style scarcity pricing; TTF gaps toward €80/MWh as utilities panic-buy LNG against Asia.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cold, wind-still winter draws EU gas storage below 30% by January and revives 2022-style scarcity pricing; TTF gaps toward €80/MWh as utilities panic-buy LNG against Asia. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.