What if Fed adopts explicit yield-curve control on the 5-year point?
Confronting funding stress and fiscal strain, the Fed caps a belly tenor outright, distorting price discovery; the dollar and credibility premium erode while gold and breakevens rise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Confronting funding stress and fiscal strain, the Fed caps a belly tenor outright, distorting price discovery; the dollar and credibility premium erode while gold and breakevens rise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.1% hist +0.26–+3.72% · other way -3.44% (n=10) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.3% hist -0.32–+1.64% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.0–+2.4% · other way -5.52% (n=7) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.18–+2.07% · other way +16.76% (n=2) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.9–+1.67% · other way -1.22% (n=2) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.56–+0.2% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -1.02–+12.12% · other way +5.5% (n=10) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.24–+0.62% · other way -1.16% (n=8) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -0.81–+10.44% · other way +4.5% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.3–+3.65% · other way -1.47% (n=2) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.34–+0.46% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.91–+1.41% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.19–+0.36% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +2.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 29 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |