What if Fed balance-sheet losses spark a political solvency row?
Mounting unrealized and remittance losses on the Fed's portfolio fuel attacks on its operating model, denting institutional credibility; the dollar softens and the term premium edges higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mounting unrealized and remittance losses on the Fed's portfolio fuel attacks on its operating model, denting institutional credibility; the dollar softens and the term premium edges higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.68–+1.41% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.38–+1.24% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist -3.86–+2.07% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.49–-0.29% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist +0.99–+7.66% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.13–+0.56% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist +1.0–+6.75% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.22–+0.44% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -9.34–+1.81% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.31–-0.16% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–+0.01% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.2–+0.35% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.17–+0.18% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.23–+0.77% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 68% | 39 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -6.5% | 72% | 36 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -5.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.8% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |