What if Fed dovish surprise sinks the dollar and ignites a global risk rally?
A clearly dovish FOMC repricing weakens the dollar broadly, easing global financial conditions and lifting EM-FX, commodities and risk assets in a synchronized reflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A clearly dovish FOMC repricing weakens the dollar broadly, easing global financial conditions and lifting EM-FX, commodities and risk assets in a synchronized reflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -5.71–+15.54% · other way -2.39% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.79–+9.5% · other way +18.91% (n=4) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.23–+1.3% · other way +0.57% (n=10) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.09–+1.39% · other way -1.14% (n=8) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.11–+1.77% · other way -3.93% (n=6) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.5–+2.61% · other way +5.41% (n=4) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.12–+0.55% · other way -0.56% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.02–+1.34% · other way -0.18% (n=8) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.37–+1.74% · other way -3.28% (n=9) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–-0.22% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.11–+0.66% · other way -1.62% (n=8) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.21–+2.26% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.46–+7.77% · other way +12.69% (n=3) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -7.6% | 71% | 13 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d -1bp ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d -1bp ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |