What if Fed leans dovish as the dual mandate tilts toward jobs?
With inflation near target and unemployment ticking up, the Fed prioritizes the employment leg and signals support, easing financial conditions and lifting cyclical risk on a reflation read.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. With inflation near target and unemployment ticking up, the Fed prioritizes the employment leg and signals support, easing financial conditions and lifting cyclical risk on a reflation read. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.