What if Fed skips a meeting, opening the door to a soft-landing pause?
The FOMC pauses to assess lagged effects rather than over-tighten, and a benign data run validates the patience; the curve bull-steepens modestly and risk grinds higher on a goldilocks read.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The FOMC pauses to assess lagged effects rather than over-tighten, and a benign data run validates the patience; the curve bull-steepens modestly and risk grinds higher on a goldilocks read. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.