What if an acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen swap lines at full size?
Acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen standing swap lines and the FIMA repo facility at full size, signaling systemic funding stress on the scale of 2008 and 2020.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Acute offshore dollar shortage forces the Fed to reopen standing swap lines and the FIMA repo facility at full size, signaling systemic funding stress on the scale of 2008 and 2020. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.