What if a combined fertilizer price surge makes inputs unaffordable for smallholder farmers?
A combined nitrogen-phosphate-potash price surge makes fertilizer unaffordable for smallholder farmers in Africa and South Asia, cutting application and triggering a multi-season yield and food-security decline.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A combined nitrogen-phosphate-potash price surge makes fertilizer unaffordable for smallholder farmers in Africa and South Asia, cutting application and triggering a multi-season yield and food-security decline. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.53–+0.93% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.09% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.07% · other way +0.03% (n=8) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.3–+1.02% · other way -5.55% (n=9) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.51–+0.91% · other way +0.75% (n=9) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.94–+2.25% · other way +5.5% (n=10) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.52–+0.51% · other way +2.43% (n=9) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.85–+2.98% · other way +4.5% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.6% | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 54% | 28 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 46% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 50% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.5% | 50% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 24 | 0.00 | · |