What if a fertiliser shortage threatened the next planting season?
A potash/ammonia shortage raises grain input costs ahead of planting, feeding grain prices and food CPI with a lag rather than immediately — fertilizer is a cost-push that shows up in next season's acreage and yields. Rhymes with the 2022 post-invasion fertilizer spike (Russia/Belarus potash, gas-driven ammonia) that pressured global planting economics. Transmission: Belarus/Russia dominate potash and Russia gas drives ammonia, so the shock is geopolitically gated — the durable read is EM food-import FX fragility, with the grain move arriving a season later.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A potash/ammonia fertilizer shortage threatens the next planting season. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.