What if a risk-off shock drives 10-year Treasury yields down 100 basis points?
A risk-off shock drives a sharp flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries, with 10y yields dropping 80–120bp and the dollar surging as global capital seeks safety.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A risk-off shock drives a sharp flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries, with 10y yields dropping 80–120bp and the dollar surging as global capital seeks safety. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.98–+2.08% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -10.66–+1.14% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.71–+0.17% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.03–+1.49% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–+0.13% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -2.83–-1.62% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.86–+1.39% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -4.95–-0.6% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.54–+2.27% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.19–+0.09% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.07–+0.26% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.25–+0.29% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.12% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.6% | 78% | 38 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -7.7% | 77% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.0% | 68% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.5% | 66% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.2% | 68% | 20 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +4bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |