What if greening and a hurricane collapse Florida's citrus crop?
Citrus greening plus a landfalling hurricane collapses Florida oranges, sending FCOJ to all-time highs — long orange juice is the isolated trade; the wheat/corn-led cascade is irrelevant to a single-crop US disaster. Rhymes with 2022-24 when greening and storms cut Florida output to ~1930s lows and FCOJ hit records above $4. Transmission: shifts US demand to Brazilian concentrate, tightening the global balance. Forward: greening is a chronic structural decline, not weather noise, so OJ has a rising floor — hurricanes just add spikes on top.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Citrus greening plus a landfalling hurricane collapse Florida orange output, pushing FCOJ futures to all-time highs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.