What if a police killing ignites a nationwide banlieue uprising in France?
A sustained French banlieue uprising is a CAC/tourism and OAT trade: curfews and a tourism hit (LVMH, Accor, hospitality) plus growth-forecast cuts pressure French equities and widen OAT spreads modestly. Direct analogue is the June-2023 Nahel riots and the 2005 banlieue unrest — both dented retail/tourism and consumer confidence but proved short-lived for markets. The channel is domestic-French risk premium and insurer claims, not the global tech selloff shown.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sustained nationwide riots after a police killing trigger curfews and tourism collapse, French assets sell off. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.