What if France reinstates the age-64 pension reform after 2027?
A post-2027 French pension-reform revolt is a Brent/refining-supply trade: strikes idle TotalEnergies refineries and depots, tightening European product (diesel/jet) cracks while French growth forecasts get cut. Direct analogue is the 2010 and 2023 pension-strike waves that blockaded French refineries and spiked diesel cracks. France imports crude but exports refined products regionally; the forward twist is thinner EU refining slack post-Russia, amplifying the diesel squeeze.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. France's new president reinstates the suspended age-64 reform after 2027; mass strikes halt refineries and transport, growth forecast slashed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -0.8–+1.71% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -4.35–+1.54% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.4–+0.82% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.98–+2.8% · other way +8.11% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.14–+1.09% · other way -2.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.56–+4.78% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.28–+0.59% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.44–+1.31% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.39–+2.52% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.86–-0.02% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.19–+1.83% · other way +5.29% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.71–+1.88% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–+0.12% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on CL/BRENT: history's -7% anchors on 2014 OPEC share-war and 2020 Saudi-Russia glut, demand regimes opposite to a French refinery-strike supply squeeze.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.0% · 5d +3.5% | 77% | 12 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.4% | 69% | 27 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 69% | 35 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +5.9% | 66% | 32 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 28 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.9% | 65% | 17 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 24 | 0.17 | · |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -4.7% | 59% | 21 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
French pension strikes near-certain when reform pushed; reinstatement post-2027 conditional on president. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.