What if France reinstates the age-64 pension reform after 2027?
A post-2027 French pension-reform revolt is a Brent/refining-supply trade: strikes idle TotalEnergies refineries and depots, tightening European product (diesel/jet) cracks while French growth forecasts get cut. Direct analogue is the 2010 and 2023 pension-strike waves that blockaded French refineries and spiked diesel cracks. France imports crude but exports refined products regionally; the forward twist is thinner EU refining slack post-Russia, amplifying the diesel squeeze.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. France's new president reinstates the suspended age-64 reform after 2027; mass strikes halt refineries and transport, growth forecast slashed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.