What if France's National Rally wins an outright majority?
An RN outright majority with a eurosceptic PM gaps OAT-Bund spreads wider on redenomination fear — the trade is short OATs/long Bunds and short EUR, with French banks (BNP, SocGen, Credit Agricole) leading equity losses. Rhymes precisely with the June-2024 snap-election spread blowout (OAT-Bund to ~85bp) and the 2017 Le Pen scare. Forward angle: a working majority, unlike 2024's hung parliament, removes the gridlock backstop that capped the move.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rassemblement National wins outright National Assembly majority, installs eurosceptic PM, OATs gap-widen versus Bunds on redenomination fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.