What if Friend-shoring rewires supply chains to allies?
Firms relocate production to allied hubs (India, Mexico, Vietnam, Poland), a costly but stabilizing re-wiring that supports allied EM FX and capex over time.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Firms relocate production to allied hubs (India, Mexico, Vietnam, Poland), a costly but stabilizing re-wiring that supports allied EM FX and capex over time. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–-0.18% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.05% · other way +0.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.35–+0.37% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.37–+1.31% · other way -3.04% (n=8) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.02–+0.75% · other way +2.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.61–+0.55% · other way +0.82% (n=11) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.09% · other way +1.59% (n=12) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.39–+1.05% · other way +7.78% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.03–+1.86% · other way +7.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.62–+0.87% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.86–+1.28% · other way -0.12% (n=8) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.21–+1.54% · other way +6.05% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.01–+2.35% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.83–+1.83% · other way -0.96% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -2.5% | 74% | 22 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.3% | 74% | 19 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 74% | 19 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.0% | 69% | 19 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 19 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 19 | 0.17 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 21 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 28 | 0.07 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 20 | 0.04 | · |