What if India retaliates against US goods with fresh tariffs?
India's counter-tariffs on almonds, Harleys and med-devices are symbolic retaliation atop a 50% wall, so the real signal is a stalled US-India deal and a softer rupee, not a Nasdaq selloff. Rhymes with 2019 when India hit 28 US products after GSP withdrawal with negligible market impact. India is a modest US goods partner but a strategic Quad counterweight to China; the forward angle is that this cascade over-prices China/semis exposure that India retaliation barely touches.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Atop the existing 50% US wall, New Delhi imposes fresh counter-tariffs on US almonds, Harley-Davidson, and medical devices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.