What if a gas-price spike shuts down ammonia plants?
A European gas spike forcing ammonia/urea plant closures cuts global nitrogen supply — the trade is long urea/UAN and a weaker EUR on the energy-import hit, with grain-input cost pass-through; this cascade is the most accurate in the batch. Rhymes with the 2021-22 TTF surge that idled ~half of EU ammonia capacity and spiked nitrogen fertilizer. Transmission: EU growers and import-dependent farmers globally absorb the cost; CF Industries (cheap US gas) gains. Forward: Europe's structural gas-cost disadvantage makes its nitrogen capacity the perennial swing-off, so spikes recur each cold snap.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A European gas-price spike forces widespread ammonia and urea plant closures, cutting global nitrogen fertilizer supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.