What if Geomagnetic storm threatens transformer-damage grid blackout?
A severe geomagnetic storm induces currents that threaten large-transformer damage and wide-area blackout risk, exposing grid vulnerability and the long replacement lead times for big transformers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A severe geomagnetic storm induces currents that threaten large-transformer damage and wide-area blackout risk, exposing grid vulnerability and the long replacement lead times for big transformers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.97–+0.06% · other way +1.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.98–+0.64% · other way -10.94% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.36–+0.87% · other way +4.25% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–+0.26% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.19–+0.23% · other way +25.88% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.49–+0.65% · other way +7.2% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.28% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.09% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.9–+0.35% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.37–+8.02% · other way +22.41% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.95% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 40 | 0.29 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +3.6% | 64% | 14 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +4.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +4bp | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.7% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -8.9% | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -4.1% | 46% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 23 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |