What if simultaneous droughts hit US, Black Sea, and South American breadbaskets?
Simultaneous drought across US Plains, Black Sea and South American breadbaskets cuts global grain output, spiking wheat, corn and soy in the multi-breadbasket failure NGFS and the IMF flag.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Simultaneous drought across US Plains, Black Sea and South American breadbaskets cuts global grain output, spiking wheat, corn and soy in the multi-breadbasket failure NGFS and the IMF flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.