What if the US builds a strategic critical-minerals reserve?
A US strategic-reserve buying spree drains merchant cobalt/REE/gallium inventories, lifting those specialty prices and defense primes (LMT, NOC, RTX) — the dominant channel is defense_spend, so the heavy Nasdaq/Alibaba downside in the cascade is misweighted. Rhymes with US uranium-reserve and 2010-11 REE stockpiling scares that spiked prices without denting big tech. Transmission: China still controls REE refining, so Washington's buying mostly bids ex-China processors (MP Materials). Forward: reserves shrink free float, amplifying the next Chinese export-control shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Washington funds a strategic reserve and aggressively buys cobalt, rare earths, and gallium, draining merchant inventories. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.08–+1.33% · other way -4.66% (n=12) |
| 2 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.21–+0.77% · other way +0.22% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–-0.27% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 4 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.17–+0.6% · other way -3.36% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–-0.21% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.53–+0.04% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.13–+0.11% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–-0.18% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–+0.01% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.39–+2.01% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.97–+1.87% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.41–+0.32% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.11–+0.45% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.12–+1.1% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR: +65/+40% analogues are 2025 BTC-bull windows — the strategic-reserve squeeze can't be read off MSTR when bitcoin's structural rally swamps every print.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.7% | 66% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 57% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.2% | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
US critical-minerals stockpiling already underway in 2026; aggressive buildout plausible over 6-18mo policy window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.