What if NERC flags reliability shortfall risk across 13 of 23 regions?
NERC's reliability assessment warns that 13 of 23 North American regions face elevated blackout risk under extreme weather as firm capacity retires faster than additions, lifting power-price volatility and risk premia on grid-stressed utilities.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. NERC's reliability assessment warns that 13 of 23 North American regions face elevated blackout risk under extreme weather as firm capacity retires faster than additions, lifting power-price volatility and risk premia on grid-stressed utilities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.