What if the US launches a wave of new nuclear reactors?
Washington fast-tracking loan guarantees for a dozen large reactors ignites a nuclear build-out — the modeled read is AI-capex/power-supply optimism (NVDA, semis) plus a copper-demand bid from grid and plant construction. Rhymes with the 2024 nuclear re-rating (Vistra/Constellation/Oklo) on the 'AI needs firm power' thesis. Skeptical note: large-reactor builds run a decade-plus (Vogtle ran years late and billions over), so the equity re-rate is a sentiment trade well ahead of any actual megawatts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Washington fast-tracks loan guarantees for a dozen new large reactors, igniting a domestic nuclear construction boom. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.69–+4.18% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.59–+1.43% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.78–+2.99% · other way +7.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.4–+7.42% · other way +5.04% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.68% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.45–+1.19% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.37–+2.47% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.36–+1.5% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.92–+4.12% · other way -2.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.18–+0.44% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.96–+1.73% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 12 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.01–+5.08% · other way -4.14% (n=12) |
| 13 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -5.36–+2.5% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 14 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.58–+0.66% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on FCX/QCOM: the negatives are driven by copper-supply and chip-specific windows (Grasberg, copper tariff, TSMC) — a nuclear build-out is a fresh copper-demand channel those off-channel analogues miss.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 12 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | LONG | +4.3% · 5d +1.2% | 93% | 12 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 74% | 12 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.9% | 70% | 12 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +0.7% | 70% | 12 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.1% | 63% | 12 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 62% | 7 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 12 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 12 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 12 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 12 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 52% | 12 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 12 | 0.03 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -7.0% | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.5% | 41% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
US nuclear momentum real; a dozen fast-tracked reactors ambitious within 1-3yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.