What if the US launches a wave of new nuclear reactors?
Washington fast-tracking loan guarantees for a dozen large reactors ignites a nuclear build-out — the modeled read is AI-capex/power-supply optimism (NVDA, semis) plus a copper-demand bid from grid and plant construction. Rhymes with the 2024 nuclear re-rating (Vistra/Constellation/Oklo) on the 'AI needs firm power' thesis. Skeptical note: large-reactor builds run a decade-plus (Vogtle ran years late and billions over), so the equity re-rate is a sentiment trade well ahead of any actual megawatts.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Washington fast-tracks loan guarantees for a dozen new large reactors, igniting a domestic nuclear construction boom. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.