What if Global carbon-price breakthrough: G20 floor agreed?
G20 powers agree a coordinated minimum carbon price, repricing emissions globally; clean-energy capex surges while high-cost fossil reserves face write-downs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. G20 powers agree a coordinated minimum carbon price, repricing emissions globally; clean-energy capex surges while high-cost fossil reserves face write-downs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.16–-0.23% · other way -3.59% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.88–+1.8% · other way -4.88% (n=11) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.0–-0.36% · other way -2.88% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.11–+0.15% · other way -4.08% (n=11) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.28–+15.74% · other way +5.51% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.04–+0.67% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.48–+2.89% · other way +2.29% (n=6) |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.78–-0.03% · other way -2.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.71–+10.71% · other way +3.55% (n=11) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.69–+7.97% · other way +3.61% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.79–+4.37% · other way -5.95% (n=6) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.87% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.78–+8.03% · other way -2.97% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +8.2% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 22 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.2% | 69% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +13.8% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.3% · 5d +5.7% | 57% | 12 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 15 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 25 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 52% | 36 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 52% | 36 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 25 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |