What if a risk-off shock sparks a global dollar scramble and blows out cross-currency basis?
A risk-off shock sparks a global scramble for dollars, blowing out cross-currency basis and forcing the Fed to reopen central-bank swap lines (2008/2020 redux).
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A risk-off shock sparks a global scramble for dollars, blowing out cross-currency basis and forcing the Fed to reopen central-bank swap lines (2008/2020 redux). The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.