What if a global recession leaves the oil market glutted?
A synchronized global recession crushes oil demand past OPEC+'s ability to defend, so crude collapses alongside a classic risk-off: banks lead, credit spreads widen, high-beta crypto and Nasdaq fall hardest. Rhymes with 2008-H2 (oil $147 to $35) and the COVID-2020 demand cliff. Skeptical note: the cascade labels VIX as '+0.7% [risk-on compresses vol]' and risk appetite text reads backwards — in a recession VIX should spike hard; the sign logic on those two legs is mislabeled even if directions are right.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A synchronized global recession crushes oil demand, overwhelming OPEC+ and collapsing prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.