What if heat and water stress across Asian rice deltas structurally lowers global rice output?
Heat and water stress across major Asian rice deltas (Mekong, Ganges, Yangtze) structurally lowers rice output, raising staple-price and food-security risk for billions, an NGFS chronic-physical scenario.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Heat and water stress across major Asian rice deltas (Mekong, Ganges, Yangtze) structurally lowers rice output, raising staple-price and food-security risk for billions, an NGFS chronic-physical scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.