What if glyphosate-resistant superweeds spread across US farmland?
Glyphosate-resistant superweeds raise US row-crop input costs and trim yields gradually — long ag-chemical demand (new herbicide modes) and a slow margin squeeze on growers, not a tradeable grain spike. Rhymes with the 2000s-2010s Palmer amaranth spread that forced costly dicamba/2,4-D programs across the Cotton Belt. Transmission is US farm input inflation and seed-trait pricing; this is a structural, low-magnitude creep, appropriately small but better tagged to fertilizer/input than grain flat price.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Rapid spread of glyphosate-resistant superweeds across US row crops collapses yields and forces costly herbicide shifts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.