What if gold broke out to a record high on central-bank buying?
A decisive gold ATH on central-bank buying and de-dollarization is fundamentally a reserve-confidence trade: a softer DXY accompanies the move, Bitcoin and the levered proxies (MicroStrategy) catch a non-sovereign-hedge bid, but the equity read-through is thin. Rhymes with the 2024-25 record EM/PBoC gold accumulation and the post-2022 reserve-freeze diversification wave. Skeptic's note: gold and BTC only co-move on the de-dollarization narrative — in a liquidity crunch BTC trades as risk, not a hedge, so don't assume the MicroStrategy leg holds in stress.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Gold breaks decisively to new all-time highs on central-bank buying and de-dollarization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.