What if Gold pressured as a Fed-credibility restoration lifts the dollar?
Decisive Fed action that restores inflation-fighting credibility strengthens the dollar and real yields; gold's debasement premium fades and price retreats.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Decisive Fed action that restores inflation-fighting credibility strengthens the dollar and real yields; gold's debasement premium fades and price retreats. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -6.26–+0.45% · other way +1.97% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.44–-0.28% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -12.26–+2.24% · other way -7.22% (n=12) |
| 4 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.89–+0.92% · other way -3.68% (n=4) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -14.64–+2.37% · other way +18.48% (n=7) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.33–+0.63% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.75–-0.16% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.24–+2.49% · other way -2.14% (n=10) |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.42–-0.24% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.41–-0.24% · other way -4.53% (n=12) |
| 12 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.01–+0.75% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–-0.2% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.11% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -9.3% | 100% | 4 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 32 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.0% · 5d -9.2% | 71% | 20 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 71% | 33 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -6.2% | 68% | 24 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 33 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 31 | 0.23 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.7% | 61% | 22 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -4.1% | 60% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |