What if Gold pressured as a Fed-credibility restoration lifts the dollar?
Decisive Fed action that restores inflation-fighting credibility strengthens the dollar and real yields; gold's debasement premium fades and price retreats.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Decisive Fed action that restores inflation-fighting credibility strengthens the dollar and real yields; gold's debasement premium fades and price retreats. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.