What if Goods deflation, services inflation tug-of-war stalls core?
Falling goods prices battle sticky services inflation to a standstill, keeping core inflation stuck above target and frustrating hopes for rapid cuts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Falling goods prices battle sticky services inflation to a standstill, keeping core inflation stuck above target and frustrating hopes for rapid cuts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.04–+2.99% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -4.31–+21.27% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–-0.26% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.0–+1.33% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -7.2–+19.9% · other way +15.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.58–-0.15% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.08–+4.44% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.9–+4.77% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.88–+3.43% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+1.19% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 12 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +3bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.21–+1.01% · other way +3.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.76–+3.44% · other way +17.0% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -7.1% | 88% | 11 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -9.3% | 75% | 9 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +4bp | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 11 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 11 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 11 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 56% | 17 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 12 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |