What if a rival jams and blinds US GPS satellites?
Blinding US GPS cripples timing for markets and logistics, not just the military — risk-off equity selling, vol spike, primes bid on the response. No direct analogue; partial echoes in the 2021 Colonial Pipeline scramble where critical-infrastructure fragility drove the headline. The cleaner read is that GPS underpins financial-message timestamping and grid sync, so the second-order operational risk (settlement, payments) could exceed the first-order equity drawdown — a reason this trades worse than a comparable-size kinetic shock.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rival blinds US GPS satellites with directed-energy and jamming, crippling military and markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.