What if widespread GPS jamming disrupts shipping, aviation and timing-dependent finance?
Widespread spoofing and jamming of satellite positioning disrupts shipping, aviation and timing-dependent finance, a hybrid-coercion channel emphasised in NATO assessments.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Widespread spoofing and jamming of satellite positioning disrupts shipping, aviation and timing-dependent finance, a hybrid-coercion channel emphasised in NATO assessments. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.7% hist +1.47–+4.72% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.48–-1.45% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.83–-0.66% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.46–-0.28% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.08–-0.52% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.42–-0.46% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.35–+0.06% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.6–+0.15% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.81–+1.36% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.15–-0.3% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.41–+2.18% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.9–+0.44% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.25–+0.09% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.8–-0.01% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 70% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.5% · 5d +3.1% | 68% | 11 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 32 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -10.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |