What if Green hydrogen finally scales?
Electrolyzer costs fall enough to make green hydrogen competitive for steel, shipping and fertilizer, decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Electrolyzer costs fall enough to make green hydrogen competitive for steel, shipping and fertilizer, decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.6–-0.21% · other way -3.39% (n=8) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.07–+0.25% · other way -5.33% (n=8) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.33–-0.11% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.37–+1.25% · other way -7.1% (n=8) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.01–+0.56% · other way +21.46% (n=8) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.38–+0.25% · other way -1.33% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.09–+1.03% · other way +10.65% (n=8) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.07–+0.65% · other way -0.58% (n=10) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.04–+2.77% · other way +10.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.23–+4.52% · other way +10.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.09–+4.49% · other way -1.67% (n=5) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.1–+0.54% · other way +0.46% (n=8) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.04–+0.13% · other way -2.4% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |