What if even an orderly energy transition embeds persistent greenflation through the 2030s?
Even an orderly transition embeds persistent 'greenflation' as carbon pricing and green-capex demand lift goods costs, complicating central-bank inflation targets through the 2030s.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Even an orderly transition embeds persistent 'greenflation' as carbon pricing and green-capex demand lift goods costs, complicating central-bank inflation targets through the 2030s. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–+0.37% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -0.95–+8.84% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.95–+0.47% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +1.08–+2.66% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.64–+1.34% · other way +3.13% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+0.01% · other way +1.43% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.78–+0.05% · other way +1.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.82–+0.96% · other way +5.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.18–+1.19% · other way -7.73% (n=3) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.73–+10.96% · other way +3.43% (n=12) |
| 11 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.76–+2.3% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.65–+3.23% · other way +3.35% (n=11) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.03–+0.18% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +3bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB XHB | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.4% | 64% | 33 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +1.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 66% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.1% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -7.8% | 63% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.8% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |